Executive Summary

Q4 2024 was dominated by reserve strengthening in Commercial Lines and adverse prior-year development, driving a GAAP net loss to common shareholders of $25.4M (−$2.08 EPS) despite sequential personal lines improvement and lower operating expenses .
The combined ratio spiked to 292.9% in Q4 (loss ratio 254.6%, expense ratio 38.3%), while Personal Lines achieved a 95.8% combined ratio, reflecting the strategic shift toward Personal Lines and away from risk-bearing Commercial Lines following the 2024 agency sale .
Full-year results were buoyed by a $61M gain on sale of the insurance agency operations (Aug-2024), producing FY net income to common of $23.5M and year-end book value per share of $1.76, but underlying adjusted operating loss remained sizable (Q4 adjusted operating loss of $25.8M; FY adjusted operating loss of $34.6M) .
Management reiterated the pivot to Personal Lines (homeowners in TX/Midwest) and continued runoff/downsizing of Commercial Lines; no quantitative guidance was provided. Key investor focus: pace of reserve clean-up, Personal Lines profitability durability, and capital trajectory after debt reduction in 2024 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Personal Lines posted a 95.8% combined ratio in Q4, improving from 111.7% in Q4’23; GWP rose 10.6% YoY to $10.6M in Q4 and 23.4% for FY24, led by low-value dwelling in TX/Midwest .
- FY net investment income increased 5.8% to $5.76M; Q4 NII of $1.35M remained resilient despite smaller underwriting footprint .
- Strategic repositioning progressed: sale of insurance agency operations in Aug-2024 with a $61M gain; debt reduced and reserves strengthened, with future premiums expected to be primarily Personal Lines .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 Commercial Lines reserve strengthening drove a 684.6% combined ratio (loss ratio 650.8%), producing a large consolidated underwriting loss and net loss to common of $25.4M in the quarter .
- Total revenue and other income fell sequentially to $14.7M in Q4 (from $16.0M in Q3 and $26.8M in Q2) given the deliberate reduction in Commercial Lines and agency disposal, pressuring operating leverage .
- Adjusted operating loss widened to $25.8M in Q4, reflecting elevated loss activity and reserve actions; FY24 adjusted operating loss reached $34.6M .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L and Key Ratios (sequential)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total revenue and other income ($M)	26.85	16.02	14.73
Net earned premiums ($M)	16.67	14.60	12.71
Net investment income ($M)	1.51	1.39	1.35
GAAP EPS (diluted)	$(0.32)	$4.32	$(2.08)
EPS – continuing ops (diluted)	$(0.32)	$(0.60)	$(2.06)
Adjusted operating EPS (diluted)	$(0.30)	$(0.60)	$(2.11)
Loss ratio (%)	91.5%	103.8%	254.6%
Expense ratio (%)	32.1%	39.3%	38.3%
Combined ratio (%)	123.6%	143.1%	292.9%

Notes: Q3 GAAP EPS reflects the $61M gain on sale of the agency operations; continuing-operations EPS excludes discontinued operations . Q4 combined ratio elevation reflects reserve strengthening and adverse prior-year development, primarily in Commercial Lines .

Actuals vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue consensus (S&P Global)	N/A*	N/A*	N/A*
Revenue actual ($M)	26.85	16.02	14.73
EPS consensus (S&P Global)	N/A*	N/A*	N/A*
EPS actual (diluted, $)	(0.32)	4.32	(2.08)

*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Consensus estimates for CNFR were not available via S&P Global for the periods shown.

Segment Breakdown

Segment Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Commercial GWP ($M)	6.78	4.02	3.12
Commercial NEP ($M)	8.68	6.43	4.25
Commercial Combined Ratio (%)	104.7%	197.1%	684.6%
Personal GWP ($M)	12.19	11.07	10.56
Personal NEP ($M)	7.99	8.17	8.45
Personal Combined Ratio (%)	144.1%	100.7%	95.8%

KPIs and Mix

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Personal Lines share of GWP (%)	64.3%	73%	77%
Commercial Lines share of GWP (%)	35.7%	27%	23%
Book value per share ($)	(0.10)	4.01	1.76
Net income to common ($M)	(3.95)	52.79	(25.38)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Business mix	FY2025+	Not specified	Commercial Lines to be a diminishing share; focus primarily on Personal Lines (TX/Midwest homeowners)	Qualitative directional update
Commercial Lines production	FY2025+	N/A	Anticipated to remain reduced following the agency sale; ongoing runoff/reserve strengthening	Qualitative directional update
Quantitative financial guidance (revenue, margins, opex, tax)	FY2025	None provided	None provided in Q4 PR/8-K (qualitative only)	Maintained (no formal guidance)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Shift to MGA/commission model	Accelerating shift; routing commercial premiums to capacity providers; cannabis to Palomar; aim for A-rated capacity; commission revenue ramp	Agency sale completed; commercial in runoff; future written premium largely personal	Commercial to be diminishing share; Personal Lines primary going forward	Continued execution of mix shift
Reserve strengthening	Noted combined ratio pressure; Oklahoma weather impact; improvement expected as OK runoff completes	Reserve strengthening contributed to higher commercial loss ratio	Significant additional reserve strengthening in Commercial Lines in Q4	Intensified in Q4
Personal Lines performance	Storm-driven pressure; Personal Lines retained on carrier model	Personal combined ratio ~101% with YoY improvement	Personal combined ratio 95.8%; GWP +10.6% YoY	Improving profitability
Capital/debt	Expense ratio improvement; investment portfolio conservative	BVPS $4.01 post-sale; higher equity	BVPS $1.76 at YE; debt down to $11.9M	Deleveraging sustained; BVPS reset post-Q4 loss
Weather/cat exposure	Oklahoma homeowners runoff to reduce volatility	Storm activity persisted	Storms over full year but improvement in Personal Lines CR	Lower cat drag expected as runoff completes

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available in our document set; latest call transcript was Q2 2024 -.

Management Commentary

“2024 was indeed a transitional year for Conifer Holdings as we successfully sold our insurance agency operations, paid down considerable debt, further strengthened reserves, streamlined our organization overall, and focused our production efforts on select personal lines going forward.” — Brian Roney, CEO .
“We expect Commercial Lines business to represent a diminishing percentage of total gross written premium going forward.” .
On Personal Lines: “Personal Lines premium represented 77% of total gross written premium for the fourth quarter of 2024… led by growth in the Company’s low-value dwelling line of business in Texas and the Midwest.” .
On Q2 transformation (context): shift to MGA model with A-rated capacity; accelerate transfer of cannabis premiums to capacity partner (Palomar); commission-based model expected to improve profitability trajectory .

Q&A Highlights

Profitability path: Management emphasized that pivoting to the MGA/commission model, securing A-rated paper for Commercial Lines, and reducing weather-exposed books (Oklahoma runoff) should accelerate the path to profitability as Personal Lines normalize seasonally .
Expense discipline and liquidity: Expense ratio improvements continued despite lower earned premiums; investments conservative with average AA+ credit quality and 2.6-year duration (context from prepared remarks) .
No Q4 Q&A transcript available; the latest available Q&A insights are from Q2 2024 -.

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for CNFR (Revenue and EPS) were not available for Q2–Q4 2024; therefore, no beat/miss determination vs Street was possible for these periods (see table above). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: In absence of Street anchors, we expect sell-side models (where maintained) to emphasize: (1) elevated reserve actions in Commercial Lines and their tail, (2) durability of sub-100% Personal Lines CR, and (3) lower revenue scale post-agency sale limiting operating leverage near term .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Commercial Lines reserve clean-up is the central swing factor; Q4’s elevated loss ratio in Commercial (650.8%) underscores that reserve actions can still dominate quarterly outcomes .
Personal Lines profitability inflected in Q4 (95.8% CR) with double-digit GWP growth; sustaining sub-100% CR here is key to rebuilding earnings power in the new mix .
Top-line will remain structurally lower post-agency sale; focus shifts to margin quality and commission economics rather than premium volume growth .
Balance sheet: YE24 book value per share was $1.76; debt reduced to $11.9M; investors should monitor reserve adequacy and further liability runoff in 2025 .
Non-GAAP framing matters: Q3 GAAP EPS was flattered by the $61M gain on sale, but adjusted operating losses persisted; Q4 adjusted operating loss widened materially, indicating core underwriting profitability still in repair mode .
Near-term trading catalysts: pace of reserve normalization and Personal Lines CR sustainability; any additional portfolio actions or reinsurance changes that further derisk loss volatility .
Medium-term thesis: execute the MGA-driven, Personal Lines-centric model with tighter underwriting and expense discipline to return to sustainable profitability; consistent mid-90s Personal Lines CR would be an important proof point .

Additional detail and source documents:

Q4 2024 8-K and attached press release (Mar 28/31, 2025) -.
Q3 2024 press release/8-K (Nov 13, 2024) - -.
Q2 2024 press release/8-K and earnings call transcript (Aug 13–14, 2024) - - -.

Conifer Holdings, Inc. (CNFR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary